Oil Supply – Yes We Can

Opponents of increased domestic oil production like to portray the U.S. as being helpless in the face of worldwide events.  This argument sometimes takes this form:

… with only 2% of the world’s oil reserves, we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices – not when consume 20% of the world’s oil.

Which we dealt with here, and sometimes like this:

…oil prices are dictated by the vast world market, of which U.S. production is just a small fraction.

or this:

This notion that a politician can wave a magic wand and impact the 90-million-barrel-a-day global oil market is preposterous…

While it is good to see supply and demand being mentioned when discussing oil, the U.S. is hardly a feeble little victim unable to affect the market.

In 2010, according to the EIA, the... more »

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The Peak Oil Dilemma

Few issues are as complicated and perplexing as Peak Oil. The study of this concept crosses into several disciplines--geology, sociology, engineering, and physics to name a few--and each is able to address only a part of the global dilemma that could be caused by rapidly dwindling oil supplies.

Presenters representing these disciplines and more discussed their findings on Peak Oil yesterday at the 2010 Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA) in Washington. Although they took different approaches in their research, they arrived at similar conclusions: Demand for oil is rising sharply in developing countries; global oil supplies aren't keeping pace with demand; and the consequences could be dire.

Here are a few of the observations offered by speakers at the ASPO conference:

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Gasoline Prices Track Crude Oil Costs

The average U.S. retail price for regular gasoline rose by 4.9 cents to $2.751 per gallon for the week ending March 8, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This average price is higher than one year ago when the average pump price was 81 cents lower and crude oil costs were 88.9 cents a gallon lower.

Gasoline is refined from crude oil, and gasoline prices generally track crude oil prices, as the chart below demonstrates.

crude oil and gasoline.jpg

Historically, there has been a lag before crude oil price changes are reflected in retail gasoline prices. On March 8, crude oil ended the NYMEX trading session at $81.87, which was nearly 80 percent higher than a year ago and $3.17 per barrel higher for the week.

Gasoline supplies are ample this year. Gasoline stocks are above last year's and the fiv... more »

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Peak Oil Demand

News flash: Global oil demand is expected to peak between 95 and 110 million barrels a day, according to BP's CEO Tony Hayward. As reported by Reuters yesterday, Hayward expects oil demand will begin to decline probably after 2020. Today the world consumes about 85 million barrels of oil a day.

"World demand will peak before its supply peaks because there is plenty of oil in the world, there really is," Hayward said in a BBC radio interview.

Hayward added that the demand for gasoline experienced in the United States and Europe in 2007 isn't likely to be surpassed. His comments are consistent with projections from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which also has stated that 2007 was the peak year for U.S. gasoline demand.

A published report in the Kansas City Star attributes the long-ter... more »

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