Energy Tomorrow Radio: Episode - 119 Oil’s Impact on Economic Growth

In today's episode, I interview Dave Murphy, energy blogger for The Oil Drum about peak oil and the importance of affordable energy for economic growth.

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The photo above includes several contributors to The Oil Drum: Jeff Vail, Dave Murphy, Dave Summers and Gail Tverberg (left to right).

Use the audio player below to listen to information about the article and follow along with the show notes. I hope you find the podcast informative.

00:16 Last week, I had the pleasure of attending the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) National Conference in Washington, D.C., where professors, geologists, economists and physicists gathered to discuss the possible repercussions of the world's reliance on oil and other fossil fuels. One of the speakers, Dave Murp... more »

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The Peak Oil Dilemma

Few issues are as complicated and perplexing as Peak Oil. The study of this concept crosses into several disciplines--geology, sociology, engineering, and physics to name a few--and each is able to address only a part of the global dilemma that could be caused by rapidly dwindling oil supplies.

Presenters representing these disciplines and more discussed their findings on Peak Oil yesterday at the 2010 Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO-USA) in Washington. Although they took different approaches in their research, they arrived at similar conclusions: Demand for oil is rising sharply in developing countries; global oil supplies aren't keeping pace with demand; and the consequences could be dire.

Here are a few of the observations offered by speakers at the ASPO conference:

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Peak Oil

The theory of Peak Oil is one of the most widely discussed--and intriguing--energy topics in the blogosphere. Simply put, the theory refers to the widely-held concept that oil is finite and production inevitably will decline, forcing major changes to our way of life, our economy, as well as the fate of humankind worldwide. The theory is attributed to M. King Hubbert, an oil company geologist, who created a graph called Hubbert's Curve predicting a sharp decline in oil production near the beginning of the 21st Century.

Hubbert's theory has captured the attention--and the concern--of people around the world who recognize the importance of oil to our daily lives.

In addition to heating and cooling, cooking and growing our food, and providing personal mobility, oil's chemical properties are u... more »

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Peak Oil Demand

News flash: Global oil demand is expected to peak between 95 and 110 million barrels a day, according to BP's CEO Tony Hayward. As reported by Reuters yesterday, Hayward expects oil demand will begin to decline probably after 2020. Today the world consumes about 85 million barrels of oil a day.

"World demand will peak before its supply peaks because there is plenty of oil in the world, there really is," Hayward said in a BBC radio interview.

Hayward added that the demand for gasoline experienced in the United States and Europe in 2007 isn't likely to be surpassed. His comments are consistent with projections from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which also has stated that 2007 was the peak year for U.S. gasoline demand.

A published report in the Kansas City Star attributes the long-ter... more »

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Peak Oil Demand

Two reports indicate that oil demand has probably peaked in the United States and other developed countries and will not exceed pre-recession levels. According to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), oil demand in developed countries, which accounts for 54 percent of overall oil demand, likely peaked in 2005.

Separately, ExxonMobil says that U.S. demand for gasoline probably peaked in 2008. The company also expects stricter vehicle standards to further depress demand in coming years.

IHS CERA's Director of Global Oil Aaron Brady says petroleum for transportation fuels has been "the single driving force" in developed countries' oil demand for two decades. Now it is being tempered by changes in the push for higher mileage vehicles, the desire for more alternative fuels and the fa... more »

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