Apples, Oranges, and the Oil Sands

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) added to the pile of conflicting well-to-wheels analyses with its report released this week, “The Life Cycle Assessment of Canadian Oil Sands,” written in the context of the Keystone XL project. Just like its predecessors, CRS wades into the world of assessment comparisons, choosing previously-published reports with seemingly common variables to come up with an emissions calculation slightly different from the rest. The problem, however, is that more often than not, apples are compared to oranges and policymakers are misled.

The report concludes that the Canadian oil sands emit 14 to 20 percent more greenhouse gases (GHGs) in a well-to-wheels (WTW) comparison with other crude oils imported into the United States “despite differences and input as... more »

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Stop-Gap Energy vs. Stable Energy

Scroll down a bit in this wrap-up of last weekend’s G8 Summit from The Hill newspaper, and you’ll see that the president and other G8 leaders hinted that they might ask for a draw on the world’s oil reserves to offset disruptions in supply from Iran. Their statement:

“There have been increasing disruptions in the supply of oil to the global market over the past several months, which pose a substantial risk to global economic growth. … Looking ahead to the likelihood of further disruptions in oil sales and the expected increased demand over the coming months, we are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to call upon the International Energy Agency to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied."

The Hill says the White House was mum on... more »

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Job Creation and the Effects of Regulation

A follow-up to our follow-up on a Washington Post article that dismissed the effects of increased U.S. oil production on global crude oil markets. The story also took shots at the oil and natural gas industry’s ability to create jobs, as well as industry assertions about the potential effect of a new gasoline standard on refineries.

Let’s start with jobs. A Wood Mackenzie study released last fall said that with the right policies the oil and natural gas industry could create 1.4 million new jobs by 2030. Here’s what the job-creation growth looks like in a chart from that study:

As it has done in previous articles, the Post suggested the projection isn’t valid because it includes direct, indirect and “induced” jobs – “everything from day-care workers to valets to rocket scientists.... more »

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Oil Sands, Refined Products, and Exports: Just the Facts

U.S. Crude Oil Stays in the United States. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2011, 99.7 percent of the crude oil produced in (or imported into) the United States was also consumed here, which means less than one-half of one percent (0.3 percent) was exported. Simply put, the United States does not export crude oil in any significant way.

The United States Exports Very Little Gasoline. Of the total on-road fuel produced in the United States in 2011, 92 percent of it was refined and consumed in the United States; only eight percent was exported. And of all the petroleum products that the United States does export, finished motor gasoline only represents about 21 percent. The majority of exported products (79 percent) are things like propane, ethanol, he... more »

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‘The Laws of Supply and Demand Do Work’

Back in February we ran the chart below. Then, at a congressional hearing last month, API President and CEO Jack Gerard referred to it in testimony urging lawmakers to consider the effects of increased U.S. oil production on global crude oil markets. We’ve written about the effects of increasing domestic supply here, here and here.

Last weekend the Washington Post took issue with the notion that the basic laws of supply and demand apply to crude oil like they do other globally traded commodities. The article noted Gerard’s congressional statements about supply and market expectations and dismissed them:

"As Gerard told it, 'the price of crude oil over three days dropped $15 a barrel and continued to move down.' The lesson, he said, was that 'markets are driven on a global basis... more »

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